The S&P Futures moved up to the 2382 resistance area and formed what could potentially be a double top. The Bulls continue to defend support at their daily midband/9 day sma (2369/70). The new weekly pivot comes in at 2373.60 along with the pre-FOMC price of 2372. This setup up a key zone of price between 2369 and 2373. The ability of one side of the other to convert that price zone to their advantage sets them up and being able to control the tape for the week. Bear conversion would mean a conversion of weekly pivot, 9 day sma and daily midband. Bulls conversion would hold support and those levels. The targets for price after an advantage has been established would be the upper/lower Bollinger band.
Friday’s Post: “The S&P Futures spent yesterday morning pulling back to the 2373 area. What could have been a trend down failed to materialize in the afternoon session. After a sloppy retest of the 2373 area the bulls we able to push price back toward the 2380 area. Overnight was flat to choppy. As we get ready to trade Friday there are two key concepts. The Bulls are technically in a band ride after two touches of some tight upper Bollinger bands. If the band ride materializes then the bulls will need to trade over 2390 today to maintain the band ride. Bears want to hold price under the daily pivot (2380.58) and get back to the 2372/73 area. 2372 is the pre-FOMC price so a break today is critical. Failure to do so makes yesterday’s weakness look like a retest of the FOMC breakout that holds. That’s how floors get made. We already have a floor at 2354. A floor at 2372/73 would open a move to a new all-timer high next week. If the bears can convert 72 their job is only half done. The daily midband is 2370 and the 9 day sma is 2371. Basically, think of 2370-2373 as a bull/bear price zone that each side must win to achieve their intermediate term objectives. Respect risk. Don’t overtrade.”
Thursday’s Post: “The S&P Futures were taken into control by the Bulls yesterday. This has been a pattern we have seen many times over the past few years. The Bears allowed a double bottom at 2354 then failed to convert weekly pivot, 9 day sma or the daily mid-band as resistance. A series of higher lows follows and we find ourselves less than 15 handles from the continuation all-time high at 2401. Over the past couple of years, the futures have liked to close out the contract at contract highs. If that happens again then we should continue to grind toward 2401 today. During yesterday Daly Wrap Up I discussed the 2380 area as being the key to the overnight trade. It was a risk marker again a long since 3pm ET and provided 2-3 very nice day maker trades. I hope everyone took advantage.”
Wednesday’s Post: “The S&P Futures continue to battle over control of the daily midband. The tape yesterday was pretty sloppy after the initial move down. We had resistance at weekly pivot after bears avoided matching lows at 2362. However, what could have been a trend down day failed to follow-through when the s3 area at 2354 held and has set up a support area with the Friday low and 2354 and yesterday’s low at 2354.75. Bulls made a sloppy whippy grind higher from there. The weekly pivot had a chance to hold in the overnight session but it failed to be resistance so we find ourselves trading in the same area that we were yesterday. Today’s big deal in the Fed. Announcement at 2pm and a presser at 2:30pm. We are traders not economists so we trade what we see. We don’t game the Fed and make assumptions about what price will do after the announcement. Trade what you see. In the room, we will follow our method that has served us very well. Get a reaction range watch price and find the setup.”
Tuesday’s Post: “The S&P Futures are in a battle between some familiar areas on the chart. Price has found support at the daily midband and weekly pivot. Price has found resistance at the 9 day sma. You can see the dynamic of that battle on the charts this morning. The impact of this four-session ping pong game is that the daily Bollinger Bands are now coming back together. This compression will give way to a decent expansion that should define the directional trade for the remainder of the month but here’s the trick. Don’t anticipate the direction or the timing of a Bollinger Band expansion. Being early is a great way to get chewed up in a bunch of false starts (like yesterday if you overtraded the day) and being early and wrong on direction is worse. Expansions that are real are violent. It’s best to be patient and trade good setups even if that means you take fewer trades a day while we are compressed. We did 3 regular session trades yesterday. On Friday, we did eight. Why? Better tape. Trade (or don’t trade) the tape you are given not the tape you want.”