McClellan Chart in Focus: Architecture Billings Index Flashes Warning on Economy – By Tom McClellan

 

Chart In Focus

The news of a 4.1% rate of GDP growth in Q2 of 2018 got the financial media excited.  4.1% was the rate of change compared to the prior quarter.  When we use a 1-year lookback, it is not quite that strong of a number, but still good news in terms of what it does to getting more people working and paying taxes.

The troubling news this week is that the latest data from the American Institute of Architects, http://www.aia.org, shows that their Architecture Billing Inquiries Index is headed downward, and that tends to be a problem for future GDP numbers.  This week’s chart shows a 6-month moving average of that Inquiries Index, and its recent downward movement does not offer a lot of hope for another really strong quarter for GDP in Q3.

The AIA divides their members’ survey response data into “Billings” and “Inquiries” subindices.  The Billings data are for actual jobs performed for clients, while the Inquiries data refers to possible new jobs being suggested by clients.  If the clients suddenly don’t want to do any more building projects, then the Inquiries data will dry up.

The one-month reading for their Inquiries Index in July was actually pretty good at 60.5, but the 6-month moving average has been falling.  And that is what portends problems for GDP in Q3.

One of the problems for the architects and other building-related trades is that we have just been through a huge blowoff top in lumber prices.  Normally the measures of housing market activity like new home sales will lag the movements in lumber prices by about a year.  But when prices go to a ridiculous extreme, it can have more immediate effects.

Lumber prices lead new home sales

The cost of building a new home zooms up in sympathy with lumber prices, and that’s assuming that builders can even source a reliable supply to get a new home built.  So it is understandable that a spike in lumber prices would retard building activity.  It is less understandable why there would normally be a 1-year lag in the behavior of these data, but history is pretty insistent on that point.

We saw a spike in lumber prices in 2010 after a big earthquake in Chile upset the lumber futures market for a while.  That spike did not see an echo a year later in new home sales, because it was not an economic event.  It was a market disruption event.  Arguably the WTO’s approval of a 20% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber is going to turn out to be a similar market disruption event, magnified by the effects of pine-bark beetle infestations in western states and provinces, and now some wildfires.  So new home sales do not necessarily have to echo the lumber futures price spike, and arguably the new home sales are being suppressed by that price spike.

All of that feeds into GDP eventually, and that seems to be what the ABI data are hinting at.  As the lumber futures market works its way back into a normal mode, the portions of the overall economy which depend on lumber as an input can also start returning to normal.

Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Market Report

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Architecture Billings Index Forecasts The Economy
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About the author

Sherman and Marian's son Tom McClellan has done extensive analytical spreadsheet development for the stock and commodities markets, including the synthesizing of the four-year Presidential Cycle Pattern. He has fine tuned the rules for interrelationships between financial markets to provide leading indications for important market and economic data. Tom is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point where he studied aerospace engineering, and he served as an Army helicopter pilot for 11 years. He began his own study of market technical analysis while still in the Army, and discovered ways to expand the use of his parents' indicators to forecast future market turning points. Tom views the movements of prices in the financial market through the eyes of an engineer, which allows him to focus on what the data really say rather than interpreting events according to the same "conventional wisdom" used by other analysts. In 1993, he left the Army to join his father in pursuing a new career doing this type of analysis. Tom and Sherman spent the next 2 years refining their analysis techniques and laying groundwork. In April 1995 they launched their newsletter, The McClellan Market Report, an 8 page report covering the stock, bond, and gold markets, which is published twice a month. They utilize the unique indicators they have developed to present their view of the market's structure as well as their forecasts for future trend direction and the timing of turning points. A Daily Edition was added in February 1998 to give subscribers daily updates on their indicators and also provide market position indications for stocks, bonds and gold. Their subscribers range from individual investors to professional fund managers. Tom serves as editor of both publications, and runs the newsletter business from its location in Lakewood, WA.