ECB Minutes Eyed in Otherwise Quiet Session – LCG Research Team.


In low trading volumes, the Dow spent most of the session in positive territory, before giving up its gains late in the day and closing just below the flatline. Apple was also unable to hold onto earlier gains of 2% and finished the session 0.1% lower. The S&P and the Nasdaq managed to close in the black, supported by rising energy stocks and other members of the elusive FAANG group, such as Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet.

Apple continues to struggle

The FAANGs have been under significant pressure recently. We expect the spotlight to remain on these stocks that could previously do no wrong. Apple, in particular, is proving unable to hold any sort of gain. A good session sees Apple trailing behind and a bad session sees Apple tumbling. Whilst Apple won’t be trading over Thanksgiving, investors will be watching closely to see how it performs as traders return to work after the public holiday. A breakthrough support at 175.00 could see the share price take another big hit.

Following on from a mixed session on Wall Street, Asian markets also traded mixed. Rising oil prices offered some support, however lingering concerns over trade tensions and the Fed’s hiking cycle amid slowing global growth weighed on demand. European markets are pointing to a mixed open. With the US closed for Thanksgiving and a relatively quiet economic calendar, today’s session could offer a well-deserved break from volatility.

More dovish ECB?

We expect that if there were any excitement in the markets today, it will be surrounding the release of the ECB accounts from its monetary policy meeting on October 25. Eurozone growth is lacklustre, and investors will be watching closely for any hint of uncertainties from Governing Council members over policy normalisation. Fed speakers have recently raised concerns over global growth and it will add to the recent narrative of a slowdown if ECB members follow suit.

Whilst inflation remains at 2%, third quarter GDP for the region showed dismal growth of just 0.2%. Germany, the powerhouse of Europe, even worse, contracted -0.2%. Even as eurozone growth momentum slows, the ECB have stuck with plans to end its asset purchase programme from December and begin raising interest rates at the end of 2019. Yet, whilst Draghi remains convinced that the risks in the eurozone are broadly balanced, there is growing expectation that some other policy members could be feeling nervous following a long string of negative releases from the region. Should this be the case, then we could expect a slightly more dovish tone to the ECB meeting and the euro to take a hit. Should the minutes show that the ECB is looking to remain on its current timeline, we would expect the euro to head higher, targeting resistance at $1.1425 before moving towards the key psychological level of $1.15.


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Jasper delivers regular commentary, seminars and webinars on market news, trading analysis, strategy and psychology. He is regularly interviewed by BBC News, Bloomberg, CNBC and Sky News, and has featured in The Times, Guardian and Daily Telegraph. Jasper hosts a weekly charting analysis webinar. He is qualified as a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) with the Market Technician Association, and has a degree in Finance and Economics.