McClellan Chart in Focus: Lofty RASI Says Uptrend Is Not Done Yet – By Tom McClellan

 
Chart In Focus

We are now 4 months into the rebound off of the Dec. 24, 2018 low, so it is a natural question to wonder if the uptrend is going to continue, or whether instead the major averages are going to stop here at the level of the prior highs.  This week’s chart offers us some useful clues about which answer applies this time.

Here is the shortcut version: Gobs of breadth is a good thing.

Now here is the longer explanation: When the NYSE’s A-D Line is really strong for a long period, it produces really high readings for the McClellan Oscillator.  That in turn pushes up the McClellan Summation Index, which changes each day by the value of the Oscillator, which means that more big positive Oscillator days will help to push up the Summation Index to a high level.

This week’s chart shows the Ratio-Adjusted Summation Index (RASI), which differs from the original classic version in that it factors out the changing numbers of issues traded over time.  For a deeper explanation of the math see this article

The basic point which matters right now is that the ability of the RASI to climb up to a nice lofty value conveys an important message.  It says that liquidity is plentiful, and that is a condition which is likely to continue for a while longer.  A high RASI reading says that there is still more uptrend yet to come.  There might be an ordinary, garden-variety correction to help restore equilibrium, but we are not at the end point for the uptrend. 

Final price highs do not typically arrive with the RASI up above +500.  The time to worry is when we are seeing prices moving to new all-time highs but the RASI is down below +500.  This is especially important when there is a normal correction which takes the RASI down below +500, and then it fails to climb back above +500 on the ensuing rally.  That is a big invitation to trouble.

But it is not at all what we are seeing now.  The RASI is up at +1005 as of April 24, so it is a long way from decaying down to the point where it would be signaling a problematic loss of liquidity for the stock market.  An ordinary correction can still appear at any time, and we have to accept that and be ready for it, but this is not the end of the uptrend.  And that is a really nice piece of information to have the market give to us.

Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Market Report

Related Charts

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RASI Shows Bull Market Waning
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Bond CEF Update: Liquidity Is Plentiful
 

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About the author

Sherman and Marian's son Tom McClellan has done extensive analytical spreadsheet development for the stock and commodities markets, including the synthesizing of the four-year Presidential Cycle Pattern. He has fine tuned the rules for interrelationships between financial markets to provide leading indications for important market and economic data. Tom is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point where he studied aerospace engineering, and he served as an Army helicopter pilot for 11 years. He began his own study of market technical analysis while still in the Army, and discovered ways to expand the use of his parents' indicators to forecast future market turning points. Tom views the movements of prices in the financial market through the eyes of an engineer, which allows him to focus on what the data really say rather than interpreting events according to the same "conventional wisdom" used by other analysts. In 1993, he left the Army to join his father in pursuing a new career doing this type of analysis. Tom and Sherman spent the next 2 years refining their analysis techniques and laying groundwork. In April 1995 they launched their newsletter, The McClellan Market Report, an 8 page report covering the stock, bond, and gold markets, which is published twice a month. They utilize the unique indicators they have developed to present their view of the market's structure as well as their forecasts for future trend direction and the timing of turning points. A Daily Edition was added in February 1998 to give subscribers daily updates on their indicators and also provide market position indications for stocks, bonds and gold. Their subscribers range from individual investors to professional fund managers. Tom serves as editor of both publications, and runs the newsletter business from its location in Lakewood, WA.