McClellan Chart In Focus: Upturn Ahead for T-Bond Yields – By Tom McClellan

Chart In Focus

July 10, 2019

I like getting answers ahead of time, and I really like chart pattern leading indications like the one in this week’s chart which can give us useful answers about what lies ahead.  The movements in crude oil prices tend to show up again about 3 weeks later in the movements of bond yields, with the dance steps getting repeated.

Sometimes the Treasury Yield Index (TYX) does its own artistic interpretation of those dance steps.  And sometimes it goes completely off script for a while, but then works extra hard to get back on track with what crude oil says should have been happening.  It is not a perfect leading indication; it is merely very good.

Crude oil prices bottomed back on June 12, and so that should have meant a bottom for the TYX ideally on July 5.  It actually bottomed one trading day early on July 3.  Close enough to the target, for a rifle shot fired 3 weeks before.

The rally in crude oil prices since June 12 should now see its echo in rising bond yields over the next 3 weeks, and especially over about the next week and a half.

Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Market Report

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About the author

Sherman and Marian's son Tom McClellan has done extensive analytical spreadsheet development for the stock and commodities markets, including the synthesizing of the four-year Presidential Cycle Pattern. He has fine tuned the rules for interrelationships between financial markets to provide leading indications for important market and economic data. Tom is a graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point where he studied aerospace engineering, and he served as an Army helicopter pilot for 11 years. He began his own study of market technical analysis while still in the Army, and discovered ways to expand the use of his parents' indicators to forecast future market turning points. Tom views the movements of prices in the financial market through the eyes of an engineer, which allows him to focus on what the data really say rather than interpreting events according to the same "conventional wisdom" used by other analysts. In 1993, he left the Army to join his father in pursuing a new career doing this type of analysis. Tom and Sherman spent the next 2 years refining their analysis techniques and laying groundwork. In April 1995 they launched their newsletter, The McClellan Market Report, an 8 page report covering the stock, bond, and gold markets, which is published twice a month. They utilize the unique indicators they have developed to present their view of the market's structure as well as their forecasts for future trend direction and the timing of turning points. A Daily Edition was added in February 1998 to give subscribers daily updates on their indicators and also provide market position indications for stocks, bonds and gold. Their subscribers range from individual investors to professional fund managers. Tom serves as editor of both publications, and runs the newsletter business from its location in Lakewood, WA.