The short VIX trade has been described recently as “the most crowded trade” out there. But traders of XIV, an inverse VIX ETN, have not been all that excited about it lately, judging by the trading volume. And that says we have a topping condition for prices.
Category: McClellan – Chart in Focus
The price of spot silver is trying really hard to break a long term downtrend line, which would arguably be a bullish development if the breakout succeeds. But the big-money “commercial” traders of silver futures are betting heavily on a failure of that breakout attempt.
Gold has been pushing up to higher closing highs, which is getting the gold bugs all excited. But we are now late in the 13-1/2 month cycle that is dominant in gold prices, and so we should expect a drop into the major cycle low due at the end of 2017.
This week’s chart looks at total assets held in the GLD Trust, which issues or redeems shares as needed in order to keep the share price as close as possible to the net asset value.
And years ending in the number 7 have an ugly surprise for the bulls. In year 7s, the stock market typically peaks in August and bottoms in early November.
A 2019 bottom for inflation rates should mean a bottom for bonds yields in around 2021, given the differing lag times for those data series.